By Jeff Todd


DENVER (CBS4) – Health experts are warning it’s still too early to look at statistical models for how Colorado is doing in its fight against COVID-19.

(credit: CBS)

“There are a lot of models out there. There are many assumptions that go into creating a mathematical model to predict the number of patients we might see who become infected with COVID-19,” said Darlene Tad-y the Vice President of Clinical Affairs for the Colorado Hospital Association. “When I look at the data that CDPHE posts every day, it tells me what has actually happened. I’d rather see what happens than guess into a crystal ball of models.”

Darlene Tad-y (credit: CBS)

Models are being used by some health care professionals and political leaders as they try and look ahead. A model from the University of Washington indicates the peak of Colorado’s illness could have passed. Data analyzed from the Colorado School of Public Health show it’s still too early to know, because determining how seriously Coloradans have taken social distancing shows a wide variety of projections.

“We’re still really thinking about the potential surge that will come. Hospitals are ready. Our hospitals have been working with doctors and the state to be ready for the surge that we’re anticipating will come. Whether or not it comes we are ready. We’re still committed to taking really good care of the patients,” Tad-y said.

(credit: CBS)

Recent data released from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment shows reported cases, hospitalizations and deaths beginning to slow. But many experts say several more days are needed to see what the data shows. One reason why officials are still stressing for strict social distancing.

“Let’s not negate all the work that we’ve done, which has been really important,” Tad-y said. “There is some indication that it’s having a positive effect and that’s really good news for us.”

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Jeff Todd

Comments
  1. Jim Granath says:

    All modeling is to some degree wrong, but as its said some are useful. The problem here is that we don’t know the infection rate in the general population because this virus is transmittable asymtomatically. So cases presented are not a good measure of the Ro (R naught) value, which is the average number of people that each case in turn infects. The models are all trying to predict when Ro will go below 1, but we don’t have a good measure of where we are now. So, until testing is widely available, we should not put too much reliance on any one model.

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