Written by Meteorologist Dave AguileraDespite seeing some fantastic snow totals in the Colorado mountains over the last few days. Moisture may be in short supply from February through Spring. The reason?

El Nino is still a no-show!

So far this winter the waters off the coast of South America are not too hot and not to cold. Meaning there are no signs that El Nino (warming) or that La Nina (cooling) are showing up to affect our overall weather patterns. This is what forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center in Maryland call “ENSO Neutral”. ENSO is short for “El Nino Southern Oscillation”.  Which is one of the global driving factors for weather across North America.  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Enso Nuetral (credit: ssec.wisc.edu)

Enso Nuetral (credit: ssec.wisc.edu)

This weather pattern tends to lead forecasters to expect  below normal precipitation from February through April over most of Colorado. That does not mean we will be completely high and dry for the rest of the season. But, it may indicate after seeing a few good snows here and there  we may still find ourselves below the averages for snowfall across the central Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

(credit: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

Precipitation (credit: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

On average, in an ENSO Neutral situation, temperatures tend to be above normal across the state as well. This is especially true across southern Colorado. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Temperature (credit: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

Temperature (credit: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)

It looks like at least through the Spring our weather may be more dry and mild than wet and wild. This may not be that great when we are in such need of good moisture. Let’s hope this pattern turns the corner once we get to spring.


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