CSU Forecasters Predict Another Busy Hurricane Season Ahead For United States
DENVER (CBS4) - The first forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season from scientists at Colorado State University was released on Thursday. Forecasters expect an above-normal year once again with a total of 17 named storms.
CSU forecasters say eight of the storms this year will be hurricanes, four of which will reach major hurricane status, meaning a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and ends on November 30.
CSU forecasters cite the lack of an El Niño this summer and warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the sub-tropical Atlantic as primary factors in their forecast. They are predicting a total of 80 days this season where there will be at least one named storm churning somewhere within the Atlantic basin.
Coming up with a hurricane forecast is not an easy task. The team at CSU uses statistical modeling to arrive at their prediction. The models account for 40 years of historical hurricane seasons and evaluate conditions including sea surface temperatures, El Niño and wind shear in the atmosphere. So far, the 2021 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011 and 2017.
"All of our analog seasons had above-average Atlantic hurricane activity, with 1996 and 2017 being extremely active seasons," said Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.
The team predicts that 2021 hurricane activity will be about 140 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2020's hurricane activity was about 170 percent of the average season, with six hurricanes making landfall in the Unites States.
Researchers at CSU will issue forecast updates on June 3, July 8 and Aug. 5.
We should point out that new 30-year climate averages take effect this year. The average number of named storms in the Atlantic Basin is now 14 per year, which is up two from the previous 30-year average. The average number of hurricanes is up by one.
