COVID In Colorado: When Officials Expect To Know The Impact Of Thanksgiving Gatherings

DENVER (CBS4) - The number of COVID-19 cases in Colorado grew by more than 6,000 on Thursday. Epidemiologists predict it will be several days before the transmission of the virus during the Thanksgiving holiday impacts daily case numbers and hospitalizations.

Health officials estimate that people who contracted COVID-19 during the Thanksgiving holiday experienced symptoms around Nov. 30, will get tested around Dec. 4 and will learn they have the virus around Dec. 7.

More than 54,000 COVID-19 tests were conducted on Wednesday in Colorado. The 7-day positivity rate has stayed between 11-13% over the last four weeks. CDPHE said their goal is for the positivity rate to stay below 5%.

The number of people hospitalized in the state with confirmed cases of COVID-19 decreased on Thursday to 1,796.

Dr. Jon Samet, Dean of the Colorado School of Public Health, said the current trajectory for hospitalizations is slowing and the number of people socially distancing is increasing. Currently, about 71% of Coloradans are socially distancing, Samet said.

However, if social distancing falls below 60% in Colorado, health officials predict hospitalizations and ICU need will increase rapidly and demand may exceed capacity.

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"This points to the need for continued maintenance of as high level of transmission control as possible," said Dr. Samet. "We have Thanksgiving behind us, but we don't know what it has done."

CDPHE said hospital demand is expected to grow, but stay within capacity limits, even with a spike in hospitalizations due to a lapse of social distancing through the holidays.

Since the pandemic began, 3,320 people with COVID-19 have died in Colorado. Of these deaths, 2,716 were caused directly by the virus.

If social distancing remains at its current rate of 71%, officials project Colorado will reach 5,809 deaths among COVID-19 cases by Dec. 26. At 60% social distancing, CDPHE projects 7,650 deaths by that date.

Epidemiologists estimate about 16.5% of the population has been infected with the virus. It's still unclear how long immunity lasts, but health officials have observed about 300 instances of reinfection in Colorado.

"We really don't know to what degree individuals might have, if they were to be infected again, if they're going to have mild illness versus more severe illness or the ability to transmit that virus to others," said Dr. Rachel Herlihy, CDPHE's State Epidemiologist. "So I think there's unfortunately lots of things we still don't know about reinfection with this virus."

About 2,500 out of every 100,000 Coloradans, or 1 in every 40, are currently infectious with COVID-19. The estimated prevalence of the virus is higher than last week, according to health officials.

"With the infection so widespread, there's a high risk of contacting someone who is infectious, which is how epidemics propagate. I think this indicates the seriousness of the situation," said Dr. Jon Samet.

CDPHE said if you do get sick, a 14-day quarantine period is still considered the "gold standard." Following new CDC guidance, officials said the quarantine can be shortened in the following situations:

• If you do not develop symptoms, you may be released from quarantine after day 7 if you have a negative molecular or antigen test collected within 48 hours.
• If you do not develop symptoms, you may be released from quarantine after 10 days without a test.

RELATED: Shortened Quarantine Time Receives Mixed Reaction In Colorado

Dr. Herlihy said the impact of the Thanksgiving holiday will help CDPHE craft their recommendations about Christmas and New Year's Eve gatherings.

"We will probably not see a tremendous decrease in cases between now and then that would lead to those gatherings being much less risky than they are now," said Dr. Herlihy.

For now, health officials strongly recommend Coloradans cancel their plans with members outside their household, socially distance, wash their hands and continue to wear a mask in public.

Colorado COVID-19 Data, as of 4 p.m. Thursday:

Testing:

• 54,195 tests conducted on Dec. 2 with 12.26% positivity rate (7-day moving average)
• 12.22% daily positivity rate on Dec. 2

Hospital Data:

• 1,796 Patients currently hospitalized, 94% of facilities reporting (-45)
• 160 Patients under investigation for probable cases, not lab confirmed (+6)
• 237 Patients discharged/transferred in past 24 hours (+20)
• 32% Facilities anticipating staff shortages within next week (+0%)
• 1% Facilities anticipating PPE shortages within next week (+0%)
• 13% Facilities anticipating ICU bed shortages within next week (+0%)
• 50% Critical care ventilators in use (+0%)
• 81% of ICU Beds in use (319 available)

Case Summary:

• 247,209 cases (+6,037)
• 14,579 hospitalized (+216)
• 1,797,377 tested (+17,994)
• 3,343,095 test encounters (+54,195)
• 3,320 deaths among cases (+127)
• 2,716 deaths due to COVID-19 (+8)
• 2,336 outbreaks (+26)

CDPHE updates COVID-19 data daily at covid19.colorado.gov/data.