Poll: Hickenlooper Trails Beauprez By 10 Points
DENVER (AP/CBS4) - Republican gubernatorial challenger Bob Beauprez has jumped ahead of Colorado Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper by 10 points in a poll released Wednesday, placing the once-popular incumbent behind by a substantial margin for the first time in the race.
"Everyone has a magic 8 ball, turn it over and it comes out with a different number," said Hickenlooper.
"Encouraging, yes, but it motivates our base to think maybe this is doable and maybe we're even on top but we run this thing to the end," said Beauprez.
In a contest that previous polls have showed as deadlocked, the independent survey from Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University has Beauprez leading Hickenlooper 50 percent to 40 percent among likely voters -- a divide that puts Hickenlooper in the most uncomfortable position of his political career.
Twice elected Denver mayor with ease, the successful restaurant and brew-pub owner then cruised into the governor's office four years ago, riding high on a public persona that showed him to be a quirky, approachable everyman.
With less than two months before the election, the poll suggests some of that sheen has worn off and Hickenlooper has a lot of ground to make up.
"Pundits were predicting that Gov. Hickenlooper faced a close race for re-election. Instead, he's got a mad dash to make up a double-digit deficit," assistant poll director Tim Malloy said in a statement.
In July, Quinnipiac conducted a poll of registered voters, instead of likely voters, that had the race tied.
The new poll was conducted by phone and randomly surveyed 1,211 likely voters from Sept. 10-15. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Republicans have spent months blasting Hickenlooper for granting an indefinite stay of execution to a death row inmate. And the Republican Governors Association has spent nearly $2 million in television ads criticizing him for the decision last year not to execute Nathan Dunlap, who was convicted of murder for the 1993 deaths of four people at an Aurora Chuck E. Cheese's.
The help from the RGA has helped offset some of Hickenlooper's vast fundraising advantage over Beauprez. The latest fundraising numbers show Hickenlooper has raised about $4.2 million, while Beauprez has raised about $1 million, and loaned himself another $527,000.
"My own pollster in 2002 told me 10 days out that we were nine points down and we ended up winning so there's not going to be any relaxing," said Beauprez.
Hickenlooper has pledged to run a positive campaign and not attack his opponent. His first television ad released last week focused on Colorado's improving economy.
"I think there is a silver lining in this because I think it will galvanize people to get engaged once again in the campaign," said Hickenlooper. "One of the problems in this country is everyone ends up at the end of the campaign, no matter who wins, half of the public hates one side or the other. It makes it hard to get anything done."
The poll, however, shows voters giving Hickenlooper low marks on leadership, honesty and caring. Forty-eight percent of voters in the poll say they think Hickenlooper cares about their needs and problems. Another 51 percent say they think Hickenlooper has strong leadership qualities, while 48 percent say he's honest and trustworthy.
Female likely voters were divided, with 46 percent for Hickenlooper and 47 percent for Beauprez. But men overwhelmingly favor Beauprez 54 percent to 34 percent.
Independent voters make up about a third of Colorado's electorate, and they, too, favor Beauprez. He leads Hickenlooper among independent voters by a 50-37 percent margin.
Hickenlooper told CBS4 Political Specialist Shaun Boyd there's a silver lining to the latest poll. He believes the poll will galvanize voters to get engaged and he says the poll won't change his re-election strategy.
"We are going to continue to stay positive (as) we said from the beginning. One of the problems we have in this country is that everybody ends up at the end of these campaigns, no matter who wins; half the public hates either one side or the other no matter who wins," Hickenlooper told Boyd. "It makes it so hard to get things done, people don't believe that our government can work for them anymore. So we are at least going to stay relentlessly positive."
Malloy said the big shift in the polling numbers from July to now may be attributable to the fact that likely voters in midterms tend to be older and favor Republicans.
"This (poll) fine-tuned the electorate," Malloy said, adding "it looks pretty good for Beauprez at this moment."
Beauprez is a former congressman who lost his 2006 bid for Colorado governor by a wide margin. That was a big year for Democrats, who capitalized on the public's displeasure with President George W. Bush, then on the sixth year of his term.
Now it's Democrats who are running with an unpopular president in the sixth year of his term.
More Campaign 2014 Stories
By IVAN MORENO, Associated Press
(TM and © Copyright 2014 CBS Radio Inc. and its relevant subsidiaries. CBS RADIO and EYE Logo TM and Copyright 2014 CBS Broadcasting Inc. Used under license. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.)
