FORT COLLINS, Colo. (CBS4) – A below-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin has been predicted by researchers at Colorado State University.
Researchers say the likely development “of an El Niño event and unusual cooling of the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic” is the reason for the prediction.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team predicts there will be nine storms during the hurricane season — June 1 through Nov. 30 – and three are predicted to become hurricanes. The team believes one will become a major strength storm.
“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Niño event this summer and fall appear to be quite high,” co-founder of the forecast Phil Klotzbach said in a statement. “Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions.”
Forecast updates will be issued by the CSU team on June 2 and July 31.
Additional Information From The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project Team
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall on U.S. soil:
- 35 percent for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52 percent)
- 20 percent for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31 percent)
- 19 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30 percent)
- 28 percent for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42 percent)