By Greg Moody
When the envelopes are opened this weekend at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood, even the most jaded movie lovers hold their breath just a bit, wondering who will win, hoping they got it right in the office pool.
With that in mind, you’ll know what I’ll be doing on Sunday — watching the annual Academy Awards and hoping that the picks I made back in late January when the nominations first came out will hold together long enough to make it to the end of the broadcast, if or when that ever comes. (It’s never on time.)
I don’t care if my picks aren’t correct.
I just hope I’m not embarrassed.
It’s going to come down to “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network.” “Social Network” is a more cutting edge film, but none of the characters in the movie are the least bit sympathetic. Hey, I’m glad you’re now a Kazillionaire, kid – did you have to be such a jerk to make your money? “The King’s Speech” is a film filled with sympathetic characters and has the kind of pedigree that older Hollywood just loves (even though it is an entire movie about one guy’s time in speech therapy).
WINNER: “THE KING’S SPEECH”
It is Colin Firth’s to lose.
WINNER: COLIN FIRTH “THE KING’S SPEECH”
She’s won everything else so far, so, I’m pretty sure she’ll win this one. I just hope she has a better acceptance speech than she’s had at earlier award ceremonies.
WINNER: NATALIE PORTMAN “THE BLACK SWAN”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The supporting categories are where it gets interesting. I’ve always found that there are far more opportunities for getting things wrong in these categories. Christian Bale has won just about everything known to man for his role in “The Fighter.” And this is the sort of role that Oscar loves – it’s meaty, it’s noisy and the actor has to make a physical transformation. Geoffrey Rush played his speech therapist in “The King’s Speech” with a quiet dignity that was wonderful to watch, but the role was likely not “showy” enough to win.
WINNER: CHRISTIAN BALE “THE FIGHTER”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Melissa Leo (“The Fighter”) has been winning just about everything so far in this category and she could, very easily, win again. Still, this has always been the category where Oscar voters honor new young performers. And, as much as I would like to see Amy Adams (“The Fighter”) win, I think it’s going to go to Leo or Hailee Steinfeld for “True Grit.”
WINNER: HAILEE STEINFELD “TRUE GRIT”
Here is another category where things are going to get interesting. The director who wins this category usually sees his movie win “Best Picture.” That won’t be the case this year. This is the chance for the Academy to honor “The Social Network.”
WINNER: DAVID FINCHER “THE SOCIAL NETWORK”
BEST ANIMATED FILM
“The Illusionist” was interesting. “How to Train Your Dragon” was fun. “Toy Story 3” was magic.
WINNER: “TOY STORY 3″
WINNER: “The Social Network”
WINNER: “The King’s Speech”
Really? I’m not sure there was one this year.
See how much fun this is? Check this list on Monday and let me know if I must hang my head in shame. I usually bat about .750-.800 on my Oscar picks and have since my first movie column in 1978.